LIVE SIMULATION RUN #812
Theoretical Probability Standings
Explore the full projections database based on 100,000 Monte Carlo calculations of host matches, structural draw coefficients, and tournament path configurations.
| Rank | Nation | Group | Win Group | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Reach Final | Lift Trophy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Spain
|
Group H | 81.8% | 65.4% | 48.2% | 31.3% | 17.4% |
| 2 |
France
|
Group I | 69.7% | 60.1% | 44.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| 3 |
England
|
Group L | 76.2% | 58.0% | 41.5% | 25.0% | 13.3% |
| 4 |
Brazil
|
Group C | 78.7% | 52.3% | 36.8% | 20.0% | 11.1% |
| 5 |
Argentina
|
Group J | 77.3% | 49.8% | 33.1% | 19.0% | 10.0% |
| 6 |
Portugal
|
Group K | 69.7% | 46.5% | 29.8% | 16.7% | 9.1% |
| 7 |
Germany
|
Group G | 62.1% | 38.4% | 22.0% | 11.5% | 6.5% |
| 8 |
Netherlands
|
Group D | 58.5% | 31.2% | 16.5% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| 9 |
Italy
|
Group E | 55.4% | 28.9% | 14.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| 10 |
Belgium
|
Group B | 51.2% | 22.4% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| 11 |
USA
|
Group A | 44.4% | 18.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| 12 |
Croatia
|
Group F | 42.1% | 16.5% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| 13 |
Morocco
|
Group H | 38.0% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 14 |
Uruguay
|
Group K | 35.5% | 14.0% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| 15 |
Mexico
|
Group F | 52.4% | 13.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| 16 |
Japan
|
Group L | 32.1% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 17 |
Colombia
|
Group I | 28.5% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| 18 |
Senegal
|
Group J | 26.4% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| 19 |
Switzerland
|
Group B | 25.1% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 20 |
South Korea
|
Group D | 22.0% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| 21 |
Canada
|
Group C | 34.5% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 22 |
Nigeria
|
Group A | 20.1% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
Showing top evaluated tier contenders based on active projections. Full 48-team analytical array is recalculated dynamically.